Thursday, December 6, 2007
The NAV Illusion
Yesterday, I was travelling to my office in Borivali Fast, of course in the Ist class couch! During my travel, I found one person advising two of his friends about how to choose between equity schemes of different mutual funds. The expert was sounding as confident as any on any of the market news programs of TV channels. Naturally, the discussion came down to examples. There are two diversified equity schemes with different NAVs but largely comparable portfolios. NAV of Scheme A was Rs.15 and the one of Scheme B was Rs 55 (this being an illustration, the speaker was not giving out any names for the schemes.).
The Advisor said, "Since the portfolios of both the schemes are almost comparable, the risk-return proposition of both the schemes is the same, except that the NAV of Scheme B has run up quite a lot, whereas the NAV of Scheme A is still very low. Don't undervalued stocks run up faster than the overvalued ones? The Scheme A is undervalued, therefore you must invest in scheme A rather than in scheme B."
Oops, I could not resist and poked my nose into the discussion. "My dear fellow Pravasi Borivalites, you are getting it all wrong!" said I and offered the following explanation.
There is a difference between the price of a listed security and the NAV of a mutual fund scheme.
1. Listed security has a price, determined by the demand and supply of the security. Whereas the unit's NAV of the scheme has a value determined mathematically, by the prices of the securities in the portfolio.
2. Most of the time, the market price of a listed security is different from its book value. This happens because, the security's market price is a function of "the book value and the market view" of the market participants. On the other hand, the book value and the market price of the unit is the same, and remains always the same. This is reflected as the NAV per unit of the scheme. Unlike in case of security's price, Scheme's NAV is not affected by the view of the Unitholders (existing or prospective) on the scheme.
Whether the scheme in which you are planning to invest has an NAV of Rs 15 or Rs 55 does not matter at all. The return of 10% in the scheme will take Rs 15 NAV to Rs 16.5 NAV and Rs 55 NAV to Rs 61.5 NAV.
Now let me make this point by using an analogy. Consider this: If you are investing Rs 100,000 in Fixed Deposit (FD), there would be 4 Fixed Deposit Receipts (FDRs) if the denomination is Rs 25,000 and 2 FDRs, if the denomination is Rs 50,000. If you have Rs 1 lac to invest you will get either 2 or 4 fixed deposit receipts on which your income (interest earning) will remain the same. If you choose to invest in 4 FDs of denomination 25,000, does not mean you have got those cheaper and therefore you will earn more on interest.
Please appreciate that the level of NAV is as irrelevant in MF investment decision as the number of the FDRs while investing in FD. It is just an equation; as long as the numerator (investment amount) does not change, the denominator (NAV / number of FDRs) does not have ANY material impact on the return potential of your investment.
The Advisor fellow pravasi wouldn't relent. "That is ok, but there is also one more reason for recommending Scheme A - it has declared dividend of Rs.3, with tomorrow as the record date."
I continued, "Friend, dividend from an equity scheme is not an additional gain or income. The ex-dividend NAV of the Scheme goes down to the extent of dividend declared. Hence the ex-dividend NAV of Scheme would go down by Rs 3. Dividend is a part of your investment value that is given back to you. If you are invested in a scheme and the scheme declares a part of the growth as dividend, it could be a tax efficient way of booking profit. But investing in a scheme because it is declaring dividend in near future is like you putting your money from your one pocket to another."
He asked, "Which factors should then we watch out for while selecting an equity scheme?" By this time, the train was at its destination and we became part of the jostling crowds hurtling towards their workplaces.
Bhavdeep Bhatt
Associate Vice President - Marketing
Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd
The views expressed above are personal and not those of my company
(Source: Value Research)
The Real Estate Syndrome
So in the midst of such news, the 9-year, close-ended HDFC real estate fund was a pleasant surprise. The recent closing of its $800 million (Rs 3,280 crore) sponsored international real-estate fund - HIREF International LLC - was only open to foreign investors. An Israeli firm, Gazit Globe Ltd, apparently invested $110 million in this fund.
Obviously, investors still believe that the Indian real estate market currently presents a very compelling investment opportunity. Recently, Hines, the American real estate giant is said to have committed a $300 million fund for investment in Indian projects through its subsidiary, Hines India Real Estate.
Indu Projects Ltd, an infrastructure development company, got three US-based realty private equity investors to invest more than Rs 450 crore in equity. The company is executing projects worth around Rs 16,500 crore and plans to come out with an IPO next year.
Talking of IPOs, Business Park Town Planners Ltd, a 4-year old real estate developer, plans to raise up to Rs 2,000 crore through an IPO. The company is wholly owned by its promoters who plan to offload a 10% stake in this IPO. Last month, the company offloaded a 5% stake to Hong Kong-based Citigroup Property Investors. Earlier this year, India Global Commercial Real Estate (Merrill Lynch's real estate arm), invested Rs 218 crore in the company's infotech park project in Gurgaon.
(Source: Value Reserch)
Extension of NFO of ICICI Prudential FMP - Series 39- Six Months Plan A
(Source: Value Research)
New Funds - ING Global Real Estate Fund
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Real Estate Operating Companies (REOCs) will be the two main securities that the fund will invest in. This makes it the first fund to be truly focused upon the real estate sector as well as diversified across geographies.
ING Real Estate is one of the largest real estate investment managers in the world with US$68 billion in assets as of 31 December 2004.
Scheme Details
Issue Opens: November 20, 2007
Issue Closes: December 14, 2007
Fund Category: Open-End, fund of funds Scheme
Benchmark Index: Citigroup World Property Index
Minimum Investment: Rs 5,000
Entry Load: 2.75 per cent for investment less than Rs 2 crore
Exit Load: An exit load of 1.5 per cent would be charged upon redemption within 12 months from the date of allotment
About the Fund Manager
Ms. Jasmina Parekh is the designated fund manager for the scheme. Prior to joining ING Investment Management Pvt. Ltd in May, 2006 her last assignment was with ASK Raymonds James as a Senior Manager (Equity Sales). Parekh has a total experience of 8 years and has worked with companies like Buildwell Plant and Equipment, Hermes Securities (BRICS), Quantum Information Services and KR Choksey Shares and Securities.
Performance History: ING Mutual Fund
ING AMC started its operation in the year 1999. Currently they are managing assets worth Rs 9,763 crore out of which Rs 822 crore is contributed towards equity.
Historically, the fund house's equity funds have lacked strong performance records. However, there have been noticeable improvements of late. Particularly noteworthy are ING Domestic Opportunities which is currently rated four-star and ING C.U.B. which has delivered exceptional returns of over 73 per cent in the last one year.
Opinion
ING Global Real Estate Fund is the first Real Estate investment avenue for individual investors. Its key plus point is diversification in a completely unrelated asset class besides the parent company's good performance track record with its existing fund. However, return from investment in the fund with be treated like a fixed income fund. The appreciating rupee may also lower the fund's return.
(Source: Value Research)
Manager Speak - No Crash Landing
Do you see a market crash in the near future?
If a crash is taken to mean a 25-30 per cent decline, I do not see a market crash in the near future. However, a correction of 8-10 per cent in the short term cannot be ruled out. This is specially the case with lower earnings growth expectations of 2QFY08 and domestic politics leading to early announcement of general elections.
What is the strategic and tactical orientation of your fund?
UTI Infrastructure Fund has been following a top-down approach with regard to stock selection, keeping in mind the evolving economic scenario. The fund has capped its exposure to various sub-segments within the infrastructure theme thereby ensuring a diversified portfolio within the broad theme. The fund has good mix of large-cap and mid/small-cap stocks, thereby ensuring a good return potential as well as liquidity of the portfolio.
Which are your top sector preferences?
Engineering & Construction
Power Equipment and Power Generation/ Transmis-sion/Distribution
(Source: Value Research)